Phenological matching drives wheat pest range shift under climate change
By
Yuqing Wu,
Zhongjun Gong,
Daniel Patrick Bebber,
Jin Miao,
Zhonghua Zhao,
Yuying Jiang,
Shihe Xiao,
Guoyan Zhang,
Dazhao Yu,
Jichao Fang,
Xinmin Lu,
Chaoliang Lei,
Jianqing Ding,
Qiang Wang,
Yueli Jiang,
Tong Li,
Hongmei Lian,
Huiling Li,
Yun Duan,
Jianrong Huang,
Donglin Jing,
Yunzhuan He,
Zhi Zhang,
Yunhui Zhang,
Julian Chen,
Hongbo Qiao,
Wenjiang Huang
Posted 22 Apr 2019
bioRxiv DOI: 10.1101/614743
Shifting geographical ranges of crop pests and pathogens in response to climate change pose a threat to food security. The orange wheat blossom midge (Sitodiplosis mosellana) is responsible for significant yield losses in China, the world's largest wheat producer. Here we report that rising temperatures in the North China Plain have resulted in a mean northward range shift of 3.3 deg (58.8 km per decade) from the 1950s to 2010s, which accelerated to 91.3 km per decade after 1985 when the highly toxic pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) was banned. Phenological matching between wheat midge adult emergence and wheat heading in this new expanded range has resulted in greater damage to wheat production. Around $286.5 million worth of insecticides were applied to around 19 million hectares in an attempt to minimize wheat midge damage to crops between 1985 and 2016. Despite use of these pesticides, wheat midge caused losses of greater than 0.95 million metric tons of grain during this period. Our results demonstrate the potential for indirect negative impacts of climate change on crop production and food security, and constitute the first large scale example of plant pest range shift due to global warming.
Download data
- Downloaded 493 times
- Download rankings, all-time:
- Site-wide: 105,807
- In ecology: 2,796
- Year to date:
- Site-wide: 91,201
- Since beginning of last month:
- Site-wide: 91,799
Altmetric data
Downloads over time
Distribution of downloads per paper, site-wide
PanLingua
News
- 27 Nov 2020: The website and API now include results pulled from medRxiv as well as bioRxiv.
- 18 Dec 2019: We're pleased to announce PanLingua, a new tool that enables you to search for machine-translated bioRxiv preprints using more than 100 different languages.
- 21 May 2019: PLOS Biology has published a community page about Rxivist.org and its design.
- 10 May 2019: The paper analyzing the Rxivist dataset has been published at eLife.
- 1 Mar 2019: We now have summary statistics about bioRxiv downloads and submissions.
- 8 Feb 2019: Data from Altmetric is now available on the Rxivist details page for every preprint. Look for the "donut" under the download metrics.
- 30 Jan 2019: preLights has featured the Rxivist preprint and written about our findings.
- 22 Jan 2019: Nature just published an article about Rxivist and our data.
- 13 Jan 2019: The Rxivist preprint is live!