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Potential Factors for Prediction of Disease Severity of COVID-19 Patients

By Huizheng Zhang, Xiaoying Wang, Zongqiang Fu, Ming Luo, Zhen Zhang, Ke Zhang, Ying He, Dongyong Wan, Liwen Zhang, Jing Wang, Xiaofeng Yan, Mei Han, Yaokai Chen

Posted 23 Mar 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.20.20039818

ObjectiveCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an escalating global epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, with a high mortality in critical patients. Effective indicators for predicting disease severity in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients are urgently needed. MethodsIn this study, 43 COVID-19 patients admitted in Chongqing Public Health Medical Center were involved. Demographic data, clinical features, and laboratory examinations were obtained through electronic medical records. Peripheral blood specimens were collected from COVID-19 patients and examined for lymphocyte subsets and cytokine profiles by flow cytometry. Potential contributing factors for prediction of disease severity were further analyzed. ResultsA total of 43 COVID-19 patients were included in this study, including 29 mild patients and 14 sever patients. Severe patients were significantly older (61.9{+/-}9.4 vs 44.4{+/-}15.9) and had higher incidence in co-infection with bacteria compared to mild group (85.7%vs27.6%). Significantly more severe patients had the clinical symptoms of anhelation (78.6%) and asthma (71.4%). For laboratory examination, 57.1% severe cases showed significant reduction in lymphocyte count. The levels of Interluekin-6 (IL6), IL10, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and D-Dimer (D-D) were significantly higher in severe patients than mild patients, while the level of albumin (ALB) was remarkably lower in severe patients. Further analysis demonstrated that ESR, D-D, age, ALB and IL6 were the major contributing factors for distinguishing severe patients from mild patients. Moreover, ESR was identified as the most powerful factor to predict disease progression of COVID-19 patients. ConclusionAge and the levels of ESR, D-D, ALB and IL6 are closely related to the disease severity of COVID-19 patients. ESR can be used as a valuable indicator for distinguishing severe COVID-19 patients in early stage, so as to increase the survival of severe patients.

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