BackgroundIncidence of congestive heart failure is difficult to predict by standard methods. We have developed a method called the signal intensity coefficient that uses echocardiographic texture analysis to quantify microstructural changes which may occur in at-risk patients prior to development of a clinical heart failure syndrome. MethodsParticipants from the Framingham Offspring Cohort study who attended the 8th visit and received screening echocardiography were included. Participants were followed for a mean of 7.4 years for incident congestive heart failure. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the hazard ratio of signal intensity coefficient in the top quartile of values versus other quartiles in the total and sex-stratified population. Results2511 participants with interpretable echocardiography and no history of congestive heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction were included in this study. The top quartile signal intensity coefficient had a hazard ratio of 1.83 (p=0.0048) for incident heart failure. When additional clinical risk factors were added to the model, this became non-significant. Within women, an elevated hazard ratio was significant in multiple models including age and hypertensive medication use. Models were not significant in men. ConclusionsElevated signal intensity coefficient is associated with an increased risk of incident congestive heart failure. This trend remains significant in women after inclusion of age and hypertensive medication use. The signal intensity coefficient may be able to identify patients at risk of developing congestive heart failure using echocardiographic texture analysis.

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